Pregnancy-related mortality up to 1 year postpartum in sub-Saharan Africa: an analysis of verbal autopsy data from six countries.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the causes of death for women who died during pregnancy and within the first 42 days postpartum with those of women who died between >42 days and within 1 year postpartum. DESIGN: Open population cohort (Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems). SETTING: Ten Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) in The Gambia, Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, Ethiopia and South Africa. POPULATION: 2114 deaths which occurred within 1 year of the end of pregnancy where a verbal autopsy interview was conducted from 2000 to 2019. METHODS: InterVA5 and InSilicoVA verbal autopsy algorithms were used to attribute the most likely underlying cause of death, which were grouped according to adapted International Classification of Diseases-Maternal Mortality categories. Multinomial regression was used to compare differences in causes of deaths within 42 days versus 43-365 days postpartum adjusting for HDSS and time period (2000-2009 and 2010-2019). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cause of death and the verbal autopsy Circumstances of Mortality Categories (COMCATs). RESULTS: Of 2114 deaths, 1212 deaths occurred within 42 days postpartum and 902 between 43 and 365 days postpartum. Compared with deaths within 42 days, deaths from HIV and TB, other infectious diseases, and non-communicable diseases constituted a significantly larger proportion of late pregnancy-related deaths beyond 42 days postpartum, and health system failures were important in the circumstances of those deaths. The contribution of HIV and TB to deaths beyond 42 days postpartum was greatest in Southern Africa. The causes of pregnancy-related mortality within and beyond 42 days postpartum did not change significantly between 2000-2009 and 2010-2019. CONCLUSIONS: Cause of death data from the extended postpartum period are critical to inform prevention. The dominance of HIV and TB, other infectious and non-communicable diseases to (late) pregnancy-related mortality highlights the need for better integration of non-obstetric care with ante-, intra- and postpartum care in high-burden settings.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and implications for population immunity: Evidence from two Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites in Kenya, February-December 2022.

BACKGROUND: We sought to estimate SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence within representative samples of the Kenyan population during the third year of the COVID-19 pandemic and the second year of COVID-19 vaccine use. METHODS: We conducted cross-sectional serosurveys among randomly selected, age-stratified samples of Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) residents in Kilifi and Nairobi. Anti-spike (anti-S) immunoglobulin G (IgG) serostatus was measured using a validated in-house ELISA and antibody concentrations estimated with reference to the WHO International Standard for anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin. RESULTS: HDSS residents were sampled in February-June 2022 (Kilifi HDSS N = 852; Nairobi Urban HDSS N = 851) and in August-December 2022 (N = 850 for both sites). Population-weighted coverage for ≥1 doses of COVID-19 vaccine were 11.1% (9.1-13.2%) among Kilifi HDSS residents by November 2022 and 34.2% (30.7-37.6%) among Nairobi Urban HDSS residents by December 2022. Population-weighted anti-S IgG seroprevalence among Kilifi HDSS residents increased from 69.1% (65.8-72.3%) by May 2022 to 77.4% (74.4-80.2%) by November 2022. Within the Nairobi Urban HDSS, seroprevalence by June 2022 was 88.5% (86.1-90.6%), comparable with seroprevalence by December 2022 (92.2%; 90.2-93.9%). For both surveys, seroprevalence was significantly lower among Kilifi HDSS residents than among Nairobi Urban HDSS residents, as were antibody concentrations (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: More than 70% of Kilifi residents and 90% of Nairobi residents were seropositive for anti-S IgG by the end of 2022. There is a potential immunity gap in rural Kenya; implementation of interventions to improve COVID-19 vaccine uptake among sub-groups at increased risk of severe COVID-19 in rural settings is recommended.

Symptom prevalence and secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in rural Kenyan households: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We estimated the secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 among household contacts of PCR-confirmed cases of COVID-19 in rural Kenya and analysed risk factors for transmission. METHODS: We enrolled incident PCR-confirmed cases and their household members. At baseline, a questionnaire, a blood sample, and naso-oropharyngeal swabs were collected. Household members were followed 4, 7, 10, 14, 21 and 28 days after the date of the first PCR-positive in the household; naso-oropharyngeal swabs were collected at each visit and used to define secondary cases. Blood samples were collected every 1-2 weeks. Symptoms were collected in a daily symptom diary. We used binomial regression to estimate secondary attack rates and survival analysis to analyse risk factors for transmission. RESULTS: A total of 119 households with at least one positive household member were enrolled between October 2020 and September 2022, comprising 503 household members; 226 remained in follow-up at day 14 (45%). A total of 43 secondary cases arose within 14 days of identification of the primary case, and 81 household members remained negative. The 7-day secondary attack rate was 4% (95% CI 1%-10%), the 14-day secondary attack rate was 28% (95% CI 17%-40%). Of 38 secondary cases with data, eight reported symptoms (21%, 95% CI 8%-34%). Antibody to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein at enrolment was not associated with risk of becoming a secondary case. CONCLUSION: Households in our setting experienced a lower 7-day attack rate than a recent meta-analysis indicated as the global average (23%-43% depending on variant), and infection is mostly asymptomatic in our setting.

A long-term observational study of paediatric snakebite in Kilifi County, south-east Kenya.

INTRODUCTION: Estimates suggest that one-third of snakebite cases in sub-Saharan Africa affect children. Despite children being at a greater risk of disability and death, there are limited published data. This study has determined the: population-incidence and mortality rate of hospital-attended paediatric snakebite; clinical syndromes of snakebite envenoming; and predictors of severe local tissue damage. METHODS: All children presenting to Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya with snakebite were identified through the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS). Cases were prospectively registered, admitted for at least 24-hours, and managed on a paediatric high dependency unit (HDU). Households within the KHDSS study area have been included in 4-monthly surveillance and verbal autopsy, enabling calculation of population-incidence and mortality. Predictors of severe local tissue damage were identified using a multivariate logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Between 2003 and 2021, there were 19,606 admissions to the paediatric HDU, of which 584 were due to snakebite. Amongst young children (≤5-years age) the population-incidence of hospital-attended snakebite was 11.3/100,000 person-years; for children aged 6-12 years this was 29.1/100,000 person-years. Incidence remained consistent over the study period despite the population size increasing (98,967 person-years in 2006; and 153,453 person-years in 2021). Most cases had local envenoming alone, but there were five snakebite associated deaths. Low haemoglobin; raised white blood cell count; low serum sodium; high systolic blood pressure; and an upper limb bite-site were independently associated with the development of severe local tissue damage. CONCLUSION: There is a substantial burden of disease due to paediatric snakebite, and the annual number of cases has increased in-line with population growth. The mortality rate was low, which may reflect the species causing snakebite in this region. The identification of independent predictors of severe local tissue damage can help to inform future research to better understand the pathophysiology of this important complication.

Spatial heterogeneity of low-birthweight deliveries on the Kenyan coast.

BACKGROUND: Understanding spatial variations in health outcomes is a fundamental component in the design of effective, efficient public health strategies. Here we analyse the spatial heterogeneity of low birthweight (LBW) hospital deliveries from a demographic surveillance site on the Kenyan coast. METHODS: A secondary data analysis on singleton livebirths that occurred between 2011 and 2021 within the rural areas of the Kilifi Health and demographic surveillance system (KHDSS) was undertaken. Individual-level data was aggregated at enumeration zone (EZ) and sub-location level to estimate the incidence of LBW adjusted for accessibility index using the Gravity model. Finally, spatial variations in LBW were assessed using Martin Kulldorf's spatial scan statistic under Discrete Poisson distribution. RESULTS: Access adjusted LBW incidence was estimated as 87 per 1,000 person years in the under 1 population (95% CI: 80, 97) at the sub-location level similar to EZ. The adjusted incidence ranged from 35 to 159 per 1,000 person years in the under 1 population at sub-location level. There were six significant clusters identified at sub-location level and 17 at EZ level using the spatial scan statistic. CONCLUSIONS: LBW is a significant health risk on the Kenya coast, possibly under-estimated from previous health information systems, and the risk of LBW is not homogenously distributed across areas served by the County hospital.

Trends in inpatient and post-discharge mortality among young infants admitted to Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To describe admission trends and estimate inpatient and post-discharge mortality and its associated exposures, among young infants (YI) admitted to a county hospital in Kenya. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Secondary level hospital. PARTICIPANTS: YI aged less than 60 days admitted to hospital from January 2009 to December 2019: 12 271 admissions in 11 877 individuals. YI who were resident within a Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS): n=3625 with 4421 admissions were followed-up for 1 year after discharge. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Inpatient and 1-year post-discharge mortality, the latter in KHDSS residents. RESULTS: Of 12 271 YI admissions, 4421 (36%) were KHDSS-resident. Neonatal sepsis, preterm complications and birth asphyxia accounted for 83% of the admissions. The proportion of YI among under-5s admissions increased from 19% in 2009 to 34% in 2019 (Ptrend=0.02). Inpatient case fatality was 16%, with 66% of the deaths occurring within 48 hours of admission. The introduction of free maternity care in 2013 was not associated with a change in admissions or inpatient mortality among YI. During 1-year post-discharge, 208/3625 (5.7%) YI died, 64.3 (95% CI 56.2 to 73.7) per 1000 infant-years. 49% of the post-discharge deaths occurred within 1 month of discharge, and 49% of post-discharge deaths occurred at home. Both inpatient and post-discharge deaths were associated with low admission weight. Inpatient mortality was associated with clinical signs of disease severity, while post-discharge mortality was associated with the length of hospitalisation, leaving against advice and referral to a specialised hospital. CONCLUSIONS: YIs accounted for an increasing proportion of paediatric admissions and their overall mortality remains high. Post-discharge mortality accounts for a lower proportion of deaths but mortality rate is higher than among children aged 2-59 months. Services to address post-discharge mortality are needed and should focus on infants at higher risk.

Impact of Intermittent Presumptive Treatment for Malaria in Pregnancy on Hospital Birth Outcomes on the Kenyan Coast.

BACKGROUND: Intermittent preventive treatment (IPTp) for pregnant women with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) is widely implemented for the prevention of malaria in pregnancy and adverse birth outcomes. The efficacy of SP is declining, and there are concerns that IPTp may have reduced impact in areas of high resistance. We sought to determine the protection afforded by SP as part of IPTp against adverse birth outcomes in an area with high levels of SP resistance on the Kenyan coast. METHODS: A secondary analysis of surveillance data on deliveries at the Kilifi County Hospital between 2015 and 2021 was undertaken in an area of low malaria transmission and high parasite mutations associated with SP resistance. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to estimate the effect of SP doses on the risk of low birthweight (LBW) deliveries and stillbirths. RESULTS: Among 27 786 deliveries, 3 or more doses of IPTp-SP were associated with a 27% reduction in the risk of LBW (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], .64-.83; P < .001) compared with no dose. A dose-response association was observed with increasing doses of SP from the second trimester linked to increasing protection against LBW deliveries. Three or more doses of IPTp-SP were also associated with a 21% reduction in stillbirth deliveries (aOR, 0.79; 95% CI, .65-.97; P = .044) compared with women who did not take any dose of IPTp-SP. CONCLUSIONS: The continued significant association of SP on LBW deliveries suggests that the intervention may have a non-malaria impact on pregnancy outcomes.

Safety and immunogenicity of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine in adults in Kenya: a phase 1/2 single-blind, randomised controlled trial.

Background: There are limited data on the immunogenicity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines in African populations. Here we report the immunogenicity and safety of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine from a phase 1/2 single-blind, randomised, controlled trial among adults in Kenya conducted as part of the early studies assessing vaccine performance in different geographical settings to inform Emergency Use Authorisation. Methods: We recruited and randomly assigned (1:1) 400 healthy adults aged ≥18 years in Kenya to receive ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or control rabies vaccine, each as a two-dose schedule with a 3-month interval. The co-primary outcomes were safety, and immunogenicity assessed using total IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) against SARS-CoV-2 spike protein 28 days after the second vaccination. Results: Between 28 th October 2020 and 19 th August 2021, 400 participants were enrolled and assigned to receive ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (n=200) or rabies vaccine (n=200). Local and systemic adverse events were self-limiting and mild or moderate in nature. Three serious adverse events were reported but these were deemed unrelated to vaccination. The geometric mean anti-spike IgG titres 28 days after second dose vaccination were higher in the ChAdOx1 group (2773 ELISA units [EU], 95% CI 2447, 3142) than in the rabies vaccine group (61 EU, 95% CI 45, 81) and persisted over the 12 months follow-up. We did not identify any symptomatic infections or hospital admissions with respiratory illness and so vaccine efficacy against clinically apparent infection could not be measured. Vaccine efficacy against asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection was 38.4% (95% CI -26.8%, 70.1%; p=0.188). Conclusions: The safety, immunogenicity and efficacy against asymptomatic infection of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 among Kenyan adults was similar to that observed elsewhere in the world, but efficacy against symptomatic infection or severe disease could not be measured in this cohort. Pan-African Clinical Trials Registration: PACTR202005681895696 (11/05/2020).

Sero-surveillance for IgG to SARS-CoV-2 at antenatal care clinics in three Kenyan referral hospitals: Repeated cross-sectional surveys 2020-21.

INTRODUCTION: The high proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections that have remained undetected presents a challenge to tracking the progress of the pandemic and estimating the extent of population immunity. METHODS: We used residual blood samples from women attending antenatal care services at three hospitals in Kenya between August 2020 and October 2021and a validated IgG ELISA for SARS-Cov-2 spike protein and adjusted the results for assay sensitivity and specificity. We fitted a two-component mixture model as an alternative to the threshold analysis to estimate of the proportion of individuals with past SARS-CoV-2 infection. RESULTS: We estimated seroprevalence in 2,981 women; 706 in Nairobi, 567 in Busia and 1,708 in Kilifi. By October 2021, 13% of participants were vaccinated (at least one dose) in Nairobi, 2% in Busia. Adjusted seroprevalence rose in all sites; from 50% (95%CI 42-58) in August 2020, to 85% (95%CI 78-92) in October 2021 in Nairobi; from 31% (95%CI 25-37) in May 2021 to 71% (95%CI 64-77) in October 2021 in Busia; and from 1% (95% CI 0-3) in September 2020 to 63% (95% CI 56-69) in October 2021 in Kilifi. Mixture modelling, suggests adjusted cross-sectional prevalence estimates are underestimates; seroprevalence in October 2021 could be 74% in Busia and 72% in Kilifi. CONCLUSIONS: There has been substantial, unobserved transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Nairobi, Busia and Kilifi Counties. Due to the length of time since the beginning of the pandemic, repeated cross-sectional surveys are now difficult to interpret without the use of models to account for antibody waning.

Efficiency of transplacental transfer of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) specific antibodies among pregnant women in Kenya.

Background: Maternal immunisation to boost respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) antibodies in pregnant women, is a strategy being considered to enhance infant protection from severe RSV associated disease. However, little is known about the efficiency of transplacental transfer of RSV-specific antibodies in a setting with a high burden of malaria and HIV, to guide the implementation of such a vaccination program. Methods: Using a plaque reduction neutralization assay, we screened 400 pairs of cord and maternal serum specimens from pregnant women for RSV-specific antibodies. Participants were pregnant women of two surveillance cohorts: 200 participants from a hospital cohort in Kilifi, Coastal Kenya and 200 participants from a surveillance cohort in Siaya, Western Kenya. Transplacental transfer efficiency was determined by the cord to maternal transfer ratio (CMTR). Logistic regression was used to determine independent predictors of impaired transplacental transfer of RSV-specific antibodies. Results: A total of 800 samples were screened from the 400 participants. At enrollment the median age was 25 years (Interquartile range (IQR): 21-31). Overall, transplacental transfer was efficient and did not differ between Kilifi and Siaya cohort (1.02 vs. 1.02; p=0.946) but was significantly reduced among HIV-infected mothers compared to HIV-uninfected mothers (mean CMTR: 0.98 vs 1.03; p=0.015). Prematurity <33 weeks gestation (Odds ratio [OR]: 0.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.06-0.85; p=0.028), low birth weight <2.5 kgs (OR: 0.25, 95% CI: 0.07-0.94; p=0.041) and HIV infection (OR: 0.47, 95% CI:0.23-0.98; p=0.045) reduced efficiency of transplacental transfer among these women. Conclusions: Transplacental transfer of RSV-specific antibodies among pregnant women in Kenya is efficient. A consideration to integrate other preventive interventions with maternal RSV vaccination targeting infants born premature (<33 weeks gestation), with low birth weight <2.5 kgs, or HIV-infected mothers is likely to improve vaccine outcomes in this setting.

Seroprevalence of Antibodies to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Among Healthcare Workers in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have assessed the seroprevalence of antibodies against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) among healthcare workers (HCWs) in Africa. We report findings from a survey among HCWs in 3 counties in Kenya. METHODS: We recruited 684 HCWs from Kilifi (rural), Busia (rural), and Nairobi (urban) counties. The serosurvey was conducted between 30 July and 4 December 2020. We tested for immunoglobulin G antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Assay sensitivity and specificity were 92.7 (95% CI, 87.9-96.1) and 99.0% (95% CI, 98.1-99.5), respectively. We adjusted prevalence estimates, using bayesian modeling to account for assay performance. RESULTS: The crude overall seroprevalence was 19.7% (135 of 684). After adjustment for assay performance, seroprevalence was 20.8% (95% credible interval, 17.5%-24.4%). Seroprevalence varied significantly (P < .001) by site: 43.8% (95% credible interval, 35.8%-52.2%) in Nairobi, 12.6% (8.8%-17.1%) in Busia and 11.5% (7.2%-17.6%) in Kilifi. In a multivariable model controlling for age, sex, and site, professional cadre was not associated with differences in seroprevalence. CONCLUSION: These initial data demonstrate a high seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 among HCWs in Kenya. There was significant variation in seroprevalence by region, but not by cadre.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in three Kenyan health and demographic surveillance sites, December 2020-May 2021.

BACKGROUND: Most of the studies that have informed the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya have relied on samples that are not representative of the general population. We conducted population-based serosurveys at three Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSSs) to determine the cumulative incidence of infection with SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: We selected random age-stratified population-based samples at HDSSs in Kisumu, Nairobi and Kilifi, in Kenya. Blood samples were collected from participants between 01 Dec 2020 and 27 May 2021. No participant had received a COVID-19 vaccine. We tested for IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein using ELISA. Locally-validated assay sensitivity and specificity were 93% (95% CI 88-96%) and 99% (95% CI 98-99.5%), respectively. We adjusted prevalence estimates using classical methods and Bayesian modelling to account for the sampling scheme and assay performance. RESULTS: We recruited 2,559 individuals from the three HDSS sites, median age (IQR) 27 (10-78) years and 52% were female. Seroprevalence at all three sites rose steadily during the study period. In Kisumu, Nairobi and Kilifi, seroprevalences (95% CI) at the beginning of the study were 36.0% (28.2-44.4%), 32.4% (23.1-42.4%), and 14.5% (9.1-21%), and respectively; at the end they were 42.0% (34.7-50.0%), 50.2% (39.7-61.1%), and 24.7% (17.5-32.6%), respectively. Seroprevalence was substantially lower among children (<16 years) than among adults at all three sites (p≤0.001). CONCLUSION: By May 2021 in three broadly representative populations of unvaccinated individuals in Kenya, seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG was 25-50%. There was wide variation in cumulative incidence by location and age.

Anti-Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Immunoglobulin G Antibody Seroprevalence Among Truck Drivers and Assistants in Kenya.

In October 2020, anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) immunoglobulin G seroprevalence among truck drivers and their assistants (TDA) in Kenya was 42.3%, higher than among healthcare workers and blood donors. Truck drivers and their assistants transport essential supplies during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, placing them at increased risk of being infected and of transmitting SARS-CoV-2 over a wide geographical area.

The ethical implications of verbal autopsy: responding to emotional and moral distress.

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy is a pragmatic approach for generating cause-of-death data in contexts without well-functioning civil registration and vital statistics systems. It has primarily been conducted in health and demographic surveillance systems (HDSS) in Africa and Asia. Although significant resources have been invested to develop the technical aspects of verbal autopsy, ethical issues have received little attention. We explored the benefits and burdens of verbal autopsy in HDSS settings and identified potential strategies to respond to the ethical issues identified. METHODS: This research was based on a case study approach centred on two contrasting HDSS in Kenya and followed the Mapping-Framing-Shaping Framework for empirical bioethics research. Data were collected through individual interviews, focus group discussions, document reviews and non-participant observations. 115 participants were involved, including 86 community members (HDSS residents and community representatives), and 29 research staff (HDSS managers, researchers, census field workers and verbal autopsy interviewers). RESULTS: The use of verbal autopsy data for research and public health was described as the most common potential benefit of verbal autopsy in HDSS. Community members mentioned the potential uses of verbal autopsy data in addressing immediate public health problems for the local population while research staff emphasized the benefits of verbal autopsy to research and the wider public. The most prominent burden associated with the verbal autopsy was emotional distress for verbal autopsy interviewers and respondents. Moral events linked to the interview, such as being unsure of the right thing to do (moral uncertainty) or knowing the right thing to do and being constrained from acting (moral constraint), emerged as key causes of emotional distress for verbal autopsy interviewers. CONCLUSIONS: The collection of cause-of-death data through verbal autopsy in HDSS settings presents important ethical and emotional challenges for verbal autopsy interviewers and respondents. These challenges include emotional distress for respondents and moral distress for interviewers. This empirical ethics study provides detailed accounts of the distress caused by verbal autopsy and highlights ethical tensions between potential population benefits and risks to individuals. It includes recommendations for policy and practice to address emotional and moral distress in verbal autopsy.

Prevalence and mortality of epilepsies with convulsive and non-convulsive seizures in Kilifi, Kenya.

OBJECTIVES: The prevalence of all epilepsies (both convulsive and non-convulsive seizures) in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMIC), particularly sub-Saharan Africa is unknown. Under estimation of non-convulsive epilepsies in data from these countries may lead to inadequate and sub-optimal allocation of resources to control and prevent epilepsy. We determined the prevalence of all types of epilepsies and compared the mortality between convulsive seizures and non-convulsive seizures in a resource limited rural area in Kenya. METHODS: Trained clinicians identified cases of epilepsy in a randomly selected sample of 4,441 residents in the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System site using a cross-sectional survey design. Seizure types were classified by epileptologists using the current guidelines of the International League Against Epilepsy (ILAE). We estimated prevalence for epilepsy with convulsive seizures and non-convulsive seizures and for epilepsy with non-convulsive seizures only and compared premature mortality between these groups of seizures. RESULTS: Of the 4441 people visited, 141 had lifetime epilepsy and 96 active epilepsy, which is a crude prevalence of 31.7/1,000 persons (95% CI: 26.6-36.9) and 21.6/1,000 (95% CI: 17.3-25.9), respectively. Both convulsive and non-convulsive seizures occurred in 7% people with epilepsy (PWE), only convulsive seizures in 52% and only non-convulsive seizures in 35% PWE; there was insufficient information to classify epilepsy in the remainder 6%. The age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of lifetime people was 23.5/1,000 (95% CI: 11.0-36.0), with the adjusted prevalence of epilepsy with non-convulsive seizures only estimated at 8.2/1,000 (95%CI:3.9-12.6). The mortality rate in PWE was 6.3/1,000 (95%CI: 3.4-11.8), compared to 2.8/1,000 (2.3-3.3) in those without epilepsy; hazard ratio (HR) =2.31 (1.22-4.39; p=0.011). The annual mortality rate was 11.2/1,000 (95%CI: 5.3-23.4) in PWE with convulsive and non-convulsive seizures and none died in PWE with non-convulsive seizures alone. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that epilepsy with non-convulsive seizures is common and adds to the prevalence of previously reported estimates of active convulsive epilepsy. Both epilepsy with convulsive seizures and that with non-convulsive seizures should be identified for optimising treatment and for planning resource allocation.

Mortality in rural coastal Kenya measured using the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System: a 16-year descriptive analysis.

Background: The Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS) was established in 2000 to define the incidence and prevalence of local diseases and evaluate the impact of community-based interventions. KHDSS morbidity data have been reported comprehensively but mortality has not been described. This analysis describes mortality in the KHDSS over 16 years. Methods: We calculated mortality rates from 2003-2018 in four intervals of equal duration and assessed differences in mortality across these intervals by age and sex. We calculated the period survival function and median survival using the Kaplan-Meier method and mean life expectancies using abridged life tables. We estimated trend and seasonality by decomposing a time series of monthly mortality rates. We used choropleth maps and random-effects Poisson regression to investigate geographical heterogeneity. Results: Mortality declined by 36% overall between 2003-2018 and by 59% in children aged <5 years. Most of the decline occurred between 2003 and 2006. Among adults, the greatest decline (49%) was observed in those aged 15-54 years. Life expectancy at birth increased by 12 years. Females outlived males by 6 years. Seasonality was only evident in the 1-4 year age group in the first four years. Geographical variation in mortality was ±10% of the median value and did not change over time. Conclusions: Between 2003 and 2018, mortality among children and young adults has improved substantially. The steep decline in 2003-2006 followed by a much slower reduction thereafter suggests improvements in health and wellbeing have plateaued in the last 12 years. However, there is substantial inequality in mortality experience by geographical location.

Implications of gestational age at antenatal care attendance on the successful implementation of a maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine program in coastal Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Maternal immunisation to boost respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) specific antibodies in pregnant women is a strategy to enhance infant protection. The timing of maternal vaccination during pregnancy may be critical for its effectiveness. However, Kenya has no documented published data on gestational age distribution of pregnant women attending antenatal care (ANC), or the proportion of women attending ANC during the proposed window period for vaccination, to inform appropriate timing for delivery or estimate potential uptake of this vaccine. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted within the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS), coastal Kenya. A simple random sample of 1000 women who had registered pregnant in 2017 to 2018 and with a birth outcome by the time of data collection was taken. The selected women were followed at their homes, and individually written informed consent was obtained. Records of their antenatal attendance during pregnancy were abstracted from their ANC booklet. The proportion of all pregnant women from KHDSS (55%) who attended for one or more ANC in 2018 was used to estimate vaccine coverage. RESULTS: Of the 1000 women selected, 935 were traced with 607/935 (64.9%) available for interview, among whom 470/607 (77.4%) had antenatal care booklets. The median maternal age during pregnancy was 28.6 years. The median (interquartile range) gestational age in weeks at the first to fifth ANC attendance was 26 (21-28), 29 (26-32), 32 (28-34), 34 (32-36) and 36 (34-38), respectively. The proportion of women attending for ANC during a gestational age window for vaccination of 28-32 weeks (recommended), 26-33 weeks and 24-36 weeks was 76.6% (360/470), 84.5% (397/470) and 96.2% (452/470), respectively. Estimated vaccine coverage was 42.1, 46.5 and 52.9% within the narrow, wide and wider gestational age windows, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In a random sample of pregnant women from Kilifi HDSS, Coastal Kenya with card-confirmed ANC clinic attendance, 76.6% would be reached for maternal RSV vaccination within the gestational age window of 28-32 weeks. Widening the vaccination window (26-33 weeks) or (24-36 weeks) would not dramatically increase vaccine coverage and would require consideration of antibody kinetics data that could affect vaccine efficacy.

Clustering of health risk behaviors among adolescents in Kilifi, Kenya, a rural Sub-Saharan African setting.

BACKGROUND: Adolescents tend to experience heightened vulnerability to risky and reckless behavior. Adolescents living in rural settings may often experience poverty and a host of risk factors which can increase their vulnerability to various forms of health risk behavior (HRB). Understanding HRB clustering and its underlying factors among adolescents is important for intervention planning and health promotion. This study examines the co-occurrence of injury and violence, substance use, hygiene, physical activity, and diet-related risk behaviors among adolescents in a rural setting on the Kenyan coast. Specifically, the study objectives were to identify clusters of HRB; based on five categories of health risk behavior, and to identify the factors associated with HRB clustering. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted of a random sample of 1060 adolescents aged 13-19 years living within the area covered by the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Participants completed a questionnaire on health behaviors which was administered via an Audio Computer-Assisted Self-Interview. Latent class analysis on 13 behavioral factors (injury and violence, hygiene, alcohol tobacco and drug use, physical activity, and dietary related behavior) was used to identify clustering and stepwise ordinal logistic regression with nonparametric bootstrapping identified the factors associated with clustering. The variables of age, sex, education level, school attendance, mental health, form of residence and level of parental monitoring were included in the initial stepwise regression model. RESULTS: We identified 3 behavioral clusters (Cluster 1: Low-risk takers (22.9%); Cluster 2: Moderate risk-takers (67.8%); Cluster 3: High risk-takers (9.3%)). Relative to the cluster 1, membership of higher risk clusters (i.e. moderate or high risk-takers) was strongly associated with older age (p<0.001), being male (p<0.001), depressive symptoms (p = 0.005), school non-attendance (p = 0.001) and a low level of parental monitoring (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: There is clustering of health risk behaviors that underlies communicable and non-communicable diseases among adolescents in rural coastal Kenya. This suggests the urgent need for targeted multi-component health behavior interventions that simultaneously address all aspects of adolescent health and well-being, including the mental health needs of adolescents.

Malaria infection, disease and mortality among children and adults on the coast of Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Malaria transmission has recently fallen in many parts of Africa, but systematic descriptions of infection and disease across all age groups are rare. Here, an epidemiological investigation of parasite prevalence, the incidence of fevers associated with infection, severe hospitalized disease and mortality among children older than 6 months and adults on the Kenyan coast is presented. METHODS: A prospective fever surveillance was undertaken at 6 out-patients (OPD) health-facilities between March 2018 and February 2019. Four community-based, cross sectional surveys of fever history and infection prevalence were completed among randomly selected homestead members from the same communities. Paediatric and adult malaria at Kilifi county hospital was obtained for the 12 months period. Rapid Diagnostic Tests (CareStart™ RDT) to detect HRP2-specific to Plasmodium falciparum was used in the community and the OPD, and microscopy in the hospital. Crude and age-specific incidence rates were computed using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Parasite prevalence gradually increased from childhood, reaching 12% by 9 years of age then declining through adolescence into adulthood. The incidence rate of RDT positivity in the OPD followed a similar trend to that of infection prevalence in the community. The incidence of hospitalized malaria from the same community was concentrated among children aged 6 months to 4 years (i.e. 64% and 70% of all hospitalized and severe malaria during the 12 months of surveillance, respectively). Only 3.7% (12/316) of deaths were directly attributable to malaria. Malaria mortality was highest among children aged 6 months-4 years at 0.57 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 0.2, 1.2). Severe malaria and death from malaria was negligible above 15 years of age. CONCLUSION: Under conditions of low transmission intensity, immunity to disease and the fatal consequences of infection appear to continue to be acquired in childhood and faster than anti-parasitic immunity. There was no evidence of an emerging significant burden of severe malaria or malaria mortality among adults. This is contrary to current modelled approaches to disease burden estimation in Africa and has important implications for the targeting of infection prevention strategies based on chemoprevention or vector control.

Prolonged health worker strikes in Kenya- perspectives and experiences of frontline health managers and local communities in Kilifi County.

BACKGROUND: While health worker strikes are experienced globally, the effects can be worst in countries with infrastructural and resource challenges, weak institutional arrangements, underdeveloped organizational ethics codes, and unaffordable alternative options for the poor. In Kenya, there have been a series of public health worker strikes in the post devolution period. We explored the perceptions and experiences of frontline health managers and community members of the 2017 prolonged health workers' strikes. METHODS: We employed an embedded research approach in one county in the Kenyan Coast. We collected in-depth qualitative data through informal observations, reflective meetings, individual and group interviews and document reviews (n = 5), and analysed the data using a thematic approach. Individual interviews were held with frontline health managers (n = 26), and group interviews with community representatives (4 health facility committee member groups, and 4 broader community representative groups). Interviews were held during and immediately after the nurses' strike. FINDINGS: In the face of major health facility and service closures and disruptions, frontline health managers enacted a range of strategies to keep key services open, but many strategies were piecemeal, inconsistent and difficult to sustain. Interviewees reported huge negative health and financial strike impacts on local communities, and especially the poor. There is limited evidence of improved health system preparedness to cope with any future strikes. CONCLUSION: Strikes cannot be seen in isolation of the prevailing policy and health systems context. The 2017 prolonged strikes highlight the underlying and longer-term frustration amongst public sector health workers in Kenya. The health system exhibited properties of complex adaptive systems that are interdependent and interactive. Reactive responses within the public system and the use of private healthcare led to limited continued activity through the strike, but were not sufficient to confer resilience to the shock of the prolonged strikes. To minimise the negative effects of strikes when they occur, careful monitoring and advanced planning is needed. Planning should aim to ensure that emergency and other essential services are maintained, threats between staff are minimized, health worker demands are reasonable, and that governments respect and honor agreements.